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                <h1>中国经济增长、电力消费和煤炭价格相互影响的时变参数研究</h1>
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                <span>发布者：蒋金泉</span><span>2019-07-09</span>
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                <p>【关键词】</p><span>经济增长；电力消费；煤炭价格；能源总量控制；实时参数向量自回归；</span>
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                <p>【附件】</p><span>中国经济增长、电力消费和煤炭价格相互影响的时变参数研究.pdf</span>
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                能源消费增长过快使能源成为经济发展的约束瓶颈,中央提出能源消费总量控制方案以保证中国经济的可持续发展,这要求能源消费与经济发展变量间的关系是可变的。本文基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法研究了工业增加值、电力消费量和煤炭价格之间的互动影响。研究结果证明,三者之间的关系随经济基础条件存在较大的变化,从总体来看,工业增加值对电力消费和煤炭价格存在正向的拉动作用;电力消费对工业增加值的拉动作用较小;煤炭价格上涨对经济增长和电力消费不存在抑制作用,本文分析了这种现象的原因。文章最后提出实现能源消费总量控制目标的政策建议。
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